Overview
- Official data show GDP rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, or 0.2% annualized, in October–December after a larger revised 2.6% annualized contraction in the previous quarter.
- The result fell short of a Reuters poll that projected 1.6% annualized growth and a 0.4% quarterly gain.
- Private consumption provided a modest lift, capital spending edged up 0.2%, and net exports contributed zero to growth as external demand stayed weak.
- Exports posted a milder decline after the United States formalised a baseline 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, leaving trade a continuing headwind.
- Full-year 2025 growth was about 1.1%, while policymakers weigh the BOJ’s gradual normalization and upgraded forecasts against plans for targeted public investment and potential temporary sales-tax relief on food.