Overview
- January’s export growth was the fastest since November 2022 and the fifth straight monthly gain, beating a 12% market forecast.
- Shipments to China surged 32% on holiday timing, with Asia up about 26% and the European Union near 30%, while exports to the United States fell 5% and North America slipped 3.3%.
- Imports declined 2.5% year on year against expectations for a rise, yielding a ¥1.15 trillion trade deficit that was far smaller than the ¥2.14 trillion forecast.
- Export composition showed broad strength, with food up 31.3%, machinery 14.3% and electrical machinery 27.3%, while transport rose 0.8% yet accounted for over a fifth of the growth contribution.
- Trade flows reflect lingering effects from prior U.S. tariffs and a September deal setting a roughly 15% baseline duty, which has not restored U.S.-bound shipments despite an overall external rebound.