Overview
- Preliminary IRS data show the average refund at $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up 10.9% from a year ago, and officials expect the figure to rise as held credits are released.
- The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act added deductions for tips (up to $25,000 with phase‑outs and eligibility rules), overtime (up to $12,500), a $6,000 senior deduction, and a higher $40,000 SALT cap, though many provisions are limited or temporary.
- Processing is lagging last year’s pace, and watchdogs warn that roughly 25–27% IRS workforce reductions and a new Schedule 1‑A could slow complex, amended or paper returns and strain customer service.
- Under the PATH Act, refunds for returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit are held until mid‑February, with many eligible direct‑deposit filers projected to see payments around March 2.
- President Trump is touting larger refunds this season, while analysts estimate gains ranging from several hundred dollars to projections near $3,800 depending on income, filing status and eligibility.