Overview
- Trading surged around the February 28 U.S.–Israel operations in Iran and the reported death of Ali Khamenei, with Polymarket handling roughly $529 million tied to strike timing.
- Blockchain firm Bubblemaps and other analysts flagged six newly funded wallets that placed large, well‑timed ‘yes’ bets hours before the deadline, estimating gains near $1.2 million.
- Financial press and platform data also highlighted clusters of new Polymarket accounts that concentrated bets on strike dates, with several reportedly netting about $1 million collectively.
- U.S.-regulated Kalshi enforced a death carveout on its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” market, settling at the last price before the reported time of death and refunding fees, as its CEO pledged clearer disclosures.
- Lawmakers pressed the CFTC for action, citing national‑security and ethical risks, while earlier Israeli prosecutions and an unauthorized ISW map edit tied to a Ukraine market underscored broader integrity concerns.