Overview
- Blockchain firm Bubblemaps identified six newly funded Polymarket accounts that collectively made about $1.2 million by buying “yes” shares hours before the Feb. 28 U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran.
- Roughly $529 million traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of the attack, with about $150 million on two “Khamenei out” markets and roughly $90 million concentrated on the Feb. 28 strike date.
- A trader using the handle “Magamyman” was flagged by Rep. Mike Levin after netting roughly half a million dollars to nearly $600,000 on Iran-related wagers, with an initial trade placed 71 minutes before news broke.
- U.S.-regulated Kalshi invoked a death carveout on its Khamenei market, reimbursed fees, and paid out at the last traded price prior to confirmed reports of death, contrasting with Polymarket’s contracts now under dispute or review.
- Sen. Chris Murphy pledged legislation to curb such markets and six Democratic senators pressed the CFTC to bar contracts tied to death, as analysts caution that on-chain timing patterns are suggestive but not definitive proof of insider trading.