Overview
- Roughly $529 million traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran, with about $90 million concentrated on the Feb. 28 contract.
- Blockchain firm Bubblemaps reported six newly created or funded wallets netted about $1.2 million by buying “yes” shares shortly before the raids.
- A user known as “Magamyman” was highlighted by Rep. Mike Levin for making roughly half a million dollars, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before news became public.
- Kalshi said it does not list markets that settle on death, used a death carveout to pay at the last traded price before confirmation of Khamenei’s death, and reimbursed all fees and net losses.
- Sen. Chris Murphy said he will introduce legislation to ban such markets, and six Democratic senators previously urged the CFTC to categorically prohibit contracts tied to an individual’s death.