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India Weighs Sugar MSP Hike and Ethanol Measures as Mills Flag January Arrears Risk

Formal decisions are expected in January to head off cane payment delays.

Overview

  • Food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the government is evaluating a package that includes raising the minimum sale price of sugar, allowing exports beyond the current 1.5 million tonnes, and increasing ethanol allocation.
  • A draft Sugar Control Order, 2025 has been prepared for public consultation to enable technology‑driven oversight and real‑time data sharing between mills and the DFPD.
  • Gross sugar output for 2025–26 is projected at about 34.3 million tonnes as consumption softens, pushing ex‑mill prices below the reported ₹41–₹41.66 per kg cost of production while the MSP remains ₹31.
  • Ethanol diversion from sugarcane sources is set near 3.4 million tonnes this season with only 28% of ethanol feedstock from cane, and industry bodies have sought higher ethanol procurement prices.
  • ISMA reported cane arrears building in key regions, including ₹2,000 crore in Maharashtra as of November 30, and officials indicated export parity could improve after Brazil’s season, aiding stock liquidation.