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IDC Warns of Record 2026 Smartphone Slump as AI Memory Crunch Bites

Analysts tie the squeeze to AI-driven shifts toward data‑center memory, projecting elevated prices with scarce supply into 2027.

Overview

  • IDC forecasts smartphone shipments will fall 12.9% to 1.12 billion this year as average selling prices jump 14% to a record $523.
  • Rising memory costs are expected to make sub-$100 phones permanently uneconomical, with consolidation likely as smaller Android vendors struggle.
  • Memory makers are prioritizing high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators over consumer DRAM, a reallocation that analysts say will constrain supply into mid-2027.
  • HP says RAM and storage now comprise roughly 35% of its PC bill of materials after a quarter-over-quarter doubling in memory costs, with price increases planned.
  • Gartner projects double-digit declines in PC shipments in 2026 and warns entry-level PCs could disappear as DRAM and NAND prices surge.