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Housing Stocks Drop After Lowe's Outlook Flags Persistent 'Lock-In'

Retailer commentary points to a frozen housing market despite mortgage rates near 6%.

Overview

  • Lowe's shares fell 5.6% and homebuilders slid broadly, with Lennar down 4.9%, PulteGroup off 4.5%, and D.R. Horton lower by 4% as sector indexes lost 3%–4%.
  • CEO Marvin Ellison said a persistent lock-in effect is suppressing housing turnover and new starts, and Lowe's issued full-year sales and earnings forecasts below Wall Street estimates.
  • Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail described conditions since 2023 as a frozen housing environment, signaling expectations for only gradual improvement.
  • The average 30-year mortgage rate eased to about 6.09%, yet purchase-loan applications fell 4.7% and refinance activity now makes up roughly 58% of mortgage demand, according to MBA data.
  • Investors weighed structural pressures including limited supply, high borrowing and building costs, and muted policy signals after President Trump reiterated plans to curb corporate home ownership.