Overview
- Kalshi prediction-market odds for Democrats retaking the House have fallen from about 83% in April to roughly 63% by mid-October, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
- Republicans’ chances of keeping control have risen from about 17% to around 37%, moving the contest closer to a toss-up that still slightly favors Democrats.
- Enten contrasts 2025 polling with 2017–2018, noting Democrats have not expanded a roughly three-point generic-ballot edge into the larger lead seen ahead of the 2018 midterms.
- He cautions that mid-decade redistricting appears to tilt toward the GOP, estimating a potential baseline gain of about seven seats if both parties maximize their maps.
- Enten adds that a forthcoming Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act could further boost GOP prospects by roughly 10 to 17 seats in some scenarios, and recent Washington Post/Ipsos polling shows GOP leads on the economy, immigration, and crime.