Overview
- Commercial vessels reported VHF warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that “no ship is allowed to pass,” though Tehran has not formally declared a closure and the UK advised transits with caution.
- Ship-tracking shows a surge in idling tankers on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, with satellite images of pileups near Fujairah, and several owners and traders suspending crude, fuel and LNG shipments.
- Maersk said it is rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10 days and higher costs versus the Suez route, as operators seek to avoid security risks.
- Brent has already risen about 10% to roughly $72–73 a barrel, and analysts say prices could jump further when trading resumes, with scenarios ranging from limited spikes to sustained moves toward $90–$110 if flows are disrupted for longer.
- Producers are preparing countermeasures, with OPEC+ holding emergency talks and Gulf states signaling spare capacity, while economists warn higher freight and insurance costs could lift inflation and squeeze importers such as India, even as China’s expanded reserves offer it a buffer.