Overview
- ISW assesses that Iran-linked risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fueled sharp oil price gains that, if maintained, could reverse Russia’s recent oil‑revenue declines within a year.
- Brent crude futures peaked at $82.37 on March 2 from $73 at the February 27 close and were trading near $78 at the time of ISW’s March 2 report.
- Reports of Iranian strikes on tankers tied to the United States and the United Kingdom, along with IRGC threats, cut Persian Gulf shipping by at least 33% as of March 1.
- Eight OPEC+ participants agreed to raise output in April to counter supply disruptions, and Kommersant reported Russia could lift production by about 3% to 10.9 million barrels per day after limits were eased.
- ISW cautions that Iran is unlikely to sustain an unlimited Hormuz blockade long enough for lasting gains to Russia, though some analysts project near‑term scenarios of $90–$100 per barrel if disruptions persist.