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Horacio Weakens After Peaking as 2026’s First Category 5 in the South Indian Ocean

Forecasters expect a quick fade over cooler, windier waters with a post-tropical transition within two days.

Overview

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated peak 1‑minute sustained winds near 160 mph, while RSMC La Réunion put 10‑minute winds at 230–240 km/h with central pressure around 910 hPa and classified Horacio as a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.
  • By February 24–25, the cyclone was tracking south over open water and rapidly weakening in cooler seas and higher wind shear, remaining primarily a marine hazard.
  • Rodrigues saw gusts near 100 km/h and seas over 6–8 meters; Mauritius Meteorological Services lifted a Class 1 cyclone warning as the system moved away and kept a heavy swell warning for Rodrigues into February 25.
  • Guidance from JTWC and RSMC indicates continued weakening and a likely transition to a post‑tropical or extratropical system within about 48 hours.
  • Scientists highlighted Horacio’s explosive intensification over warm waters as consistent with research showing a rising share of Category 4–5 storms in a warming climate.