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Global Study Projects Sharp Rise in Breast Cancer by 2050 as Burden Shifts to Poorer Countries

A Lancet Oncology analysis warns limited capacity in low‑resource countries could derail WHO mortality‑reduction goals.

Overview

  • New cases are forecast to climb from about 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million by 2050, with annual deaths rising from 764,000 to nearly 1.4 million.
  • Age‑standardized mortality fell nearly 30% in high‑income countries since 1990 but almost doubled in low‑income nations, reflecting widening inequities in early diagnosis and treatment.
  • Roughly 28% of the 2023 global breast cancer burden was linked to six modifiable risks: high red meat intake, tobacco (including secondhand smoke), high blood sugar, high BMI, alcohol use, and low physical activity.
  • Incidence among women aged 20–54 has risen about 29% since 1990, even as rates in older women have remained relatively stable.
  • Health‑system gaps such as shortages of radiotherapy, chemotherapy and pathology services, plus high drug costs, are cited as key drivers of higher mortality, with India illustrating the surge at 203,000 new cases and over 100,000 deaths in 2023.