Overview
- The Global Burden of Disease analysis published in The Lancet Oncology projects new cases rising from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million by 2050, with annual deaths approaching 1.4 million.
- Study authors report a growing concentration of illness and early death in low- and lower‑middle‑income countries, where patients are diagnosed later and access to quality care is scarce.
- Several Middle East countries are among the fastest‑rising hotspots; the Middle East and North Africa recorded 128,000 cases and 41,100 deaths in 2023, including 21,300 in Egypt and 15,300 in Iraq.
- Mortality fell nearly 30% in high‑income countries from 1990 to 2023, but death rates rose about 99% in low‑income nations as diagnoses surged 147%, with central and western sub‑Saharan Africa now exceeding twice the global mortality rate.
- Treatment shortfalls and costs impede care, with only about half of African countries having any external beam radiotherapy in 2020 and none with sufficient capacity, and the authors warn many nations risk missing WHO’s 2.5% annual mortality‑reduction target even though lifestyle measures could prevent more than a quarter of healthy years lost.