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Flutter Shares Slide on Q4 Miss and Soft 2026 Outlook as It Backs Prediction Markets

Flutter signals a near‑term profit hit as it channels more spending into FanDuel Predicts.

Overview

  • Flutter reported Q4 revenue of $4.74 billion versus $4.97 billion expected and adjusted EBITDA of $832 million versus $893 million forecast, with adjusted EPS also below estimates.
  • 2026 guidance calls for $18.4 billion in revenue and $2.97 billion in adjusted EBITDA, roughly 4% EBITDA growth and well under analyst expectations of about $19.3 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively.
  • Management attributed the slowdown to weaker U.S. engagement tied to less compelling NFL playoffs and promotions that underperformed, with U.S. sportsbook handle up just 3% for 2025.
  • Flutter will increase investment in its FanDuel Predicts platform, expecting a 2026 adjusted EBITDA drag toward the top of a $200 million–$300 million range, as the app expands non‑sports markets nationwide and sports markets in 18 states including California, Texas and Florida.
  • An internal review found only a low‑single‑digit impact from prediction markets on sportsbook handle, and FanDuel plans a Q2 loyalty program and product enhancements as it targets catalysts like March Madness and the 2026 World Cup.