Overview
- The FOMC left rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a 10–2 decision, with Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran favoring a quarter-point cut.
- Minutes show several officials wanted language keeping rate hikes possible if inflation stays above 2%, and many argued for no further cuts until disinflation is clearly back on track.
- The record said a vast majority saw labor‑market downside risks easing, while several warned that cutting further could be read as wavering on the 2% goal.
- Since the meeting, CPI slowed to 2.4% year over year with core at 2.5%, payrolls rose by 130,000, and unemployment fell to 4.3%.
- Economists and futures now lean toward the first cut in June, with Wells Fargo and ANZ targeting midyear, a stance that could constrain Kevin Warsh’s scope to push for faster easing if confirmed as chair.