Overview
- Policymakers voted 10–2 in January to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran favoring a quarter-point cut.
- The minutes show several participants backed a “two-sided” stance that would allow for rate increases if inflation stays above target, and many argued policy may need to stay on hold for some time.
- Recent data showed consumer prices up 2.4% year over year in January and payrolls rising by 130,000, complicating the case for near-term cuts.
- Neel Kashkari said policy is “pretty close” to neutral, Michael Barr urged holding rates for some time, Austan Goolsbee wants clearer disinflation before cutting, and Miran scaled back how much easing he expects in 2026.
- President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell highlights a potential leadership shift as futures markets largely price no move in March and look to midyear for possible cuts.