Overview
- Italy’s VAT shortfall reached 15% in 2023—about €25 billion—with a preliminary uptick to 15.3% indicated for 2024.
- Evasion is concentrated among self‑employed workers and small firms, with about €37 billion unpaid in 2022 and a 59.8% estimated propensity to the black economy.
- The corporate income tax gap increased to 19.5% (about €10.3 billion), exceeding the 10.9% average estimated across 23 EU countries reporting data.
- Cash recovery remains weak: of €72.3 billion in assessed evasion in 2024 only €12.8 billion was collected, forced collection yielded 3.1%, with outstanding collection files far above EU norms.
- The Commission recommends wider use of data, risk analysis and AI to strengthen compliance, while noting tax expenditures projected to exceed €119 billion in 2025.