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Eli Lilly Tightens GLP-1 Grip, Guides Up to $83 Billion for 2026

The outlook reflects heavy reliance on two GLP-1 brands despite growing oral competition.

Overview

  • Eli Lilly’s Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, with Mounjaro at $7.4 billion and Zepbound near $4.3 billion, totaling about $11.7 billion and exceeding 60% of company sales.
  • The company forecasts full-year 2026 revenue of $80 billion to $83 billion, implying growth that could approach 27%.
  • Lilly holds more than 60% of the U.S. GLP-1 market and trades at a premium valuation near 46 times earnings.
  • Competition is intensifying as Novo Nordisk wins approval for an oral Wegovy, and Lilly’s oral candidate orforglipron remains under regulatory review with a planned U.S. launch in Q2 2026.
  • Novo projects an adjusted sales decline of 5% to 13% this year and is suing Hims & Hers over compounded products, while head-to-head results reported Zepbound outperforming Wegovy and analysts see the obesity market nearing $100 billion by decade’s end.