Overview
- All 76 economists in a Feb. 10–18 Reuters poll expect no change at the March BOJ meeting.
- Fifty-eight percent now project the policy rate at 1% by end-June, with June the most cited month and some flagging April.
- Market pricing points to roughly 89% odds of a March hold and about a 64% chance of a 25 bp move to 1.00% in April.
- Sixty-nine percent expect authorities to intervene if yen weakness resumes, with the 160 per dollar level highlighted as a likely trigger.
- Takaichi’s election win and proposed tax relief have heightened fiscal and inflation concerns, while wage growth is forecast around 5.2%.