Overview
- Alan Cole, a 37-year-old Tax Foundation economist, wagered $342,195.63 on Kalshi that each quarter of 2025 would exceed federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Official 2025 figures released on February 20 showed the lowest quarter was $66 billion above the target, resulting in a $470,300 payout and roughly $128,000 in profit.
- Cole said entitlements and interest payments dominate outlays, so DOGE’s personnel and program cuts could not materially reduce total spending.
- He diversified across multiple contracts to limit downside, saying he would only lose if spending fell by more than $50 billion, and he later explained his approach in an X FAQ.
- He reported holding roughly 3% of positions in the market, while other budget experts called the outcome predictable but avoided betting due to liquidity, administrative, legal, and payout concerns.