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Dow Tops 50,000 as Trump Credits Tariffs and Predicts 100,000

Legal uncertainty over sweeping tariffs clouds the market narrative.

Overview

  • The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time on Feb. 8 and remained above the mark Monday, closing near 50,136.
  • President Trump posted on Truth Social that the index will reach 100,000 by early 2029 and credited tariffs, urging the Supreme Court to take note.
  • Tariff legality remains unresolved as the Supreme Court has not issued a decision following lower-court skepticism of the program.
  • Economists report that most tariff costs have been borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, with a Kiel Institute study estimating roughly 96% and San Francisco Fed research describing mixed economic effects over time.
  • Market strategists say doubling to 100,000 in three years would require about 26% annual gains, a historically aggressive pace that could be vulnerable to Federal Reserve policy or a valuation reset.