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DNC Postmortem Links Harris’s 2024 Loss to Gaza Stance as New Study Raises Death Toll Estimates

The withheld review, alongside fresh casualty research, is fueling pressure inside the party to reset its stance toward Israel.

Overview

  • A recent Axios report says a still-unreleased DNC autopsy concluded Kamala Harris lost votes because the Biden administration’s Gaza policy alienated key Democrats, especially younger voters.
  • President Joe Biden publicly questioned Palestinian death figures, while a February Lancet study using household surveys estimated about 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza through early January 2025.
  • The Lancet team also estimated roughly 8,540 excess nonviolent deaths and reported that about 56% of violent deaths were among children, women, and elderly men.
  • Gaza’s Ministry of Health had earlier tallied about 49,090 violent deaths from hospital and morgue records, a method researchers say likely missed fatalities as health infrastructure collapsed.
  • Democratic politics are shifting as polling shows rising sympathy for Palestinians, some candidates reject AIPAC funding—such as Rep. Seth Moulton—and commentators urge making Gaza a values litmus test for the party.