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Demographers Trace Global Turn Toward Depopulation, Citing Steep Fertility Declines

UN figures show births have fallen sharply across much of the world.

Overview

  • United Nations data indicate global female fertility had halved by 2015 compared with three decades earlier, and most people now live where deaths exceed births.
  • Nicholas Eberstadt is cited describing an emerging 'era of depopulation' as fertility declines spread across wealthy and poorer nations alike.
  • East Asia’s birth rates sit far below replacement, with Japan about 40% under, China 50% under, Taiwan 60% under and South Korea roughly 65% under the 2.1 threshold.
  • India is reported as having negative population replacement, while Latin American cities such as Bogotá and Mexico City now average under one child per woman.
  • Mexico’s national fertility in 2024 is below 1.5 children per woman with births falling for a third consecutive year, as Sub‑Saharan Africa remains the only region with sustained growth.