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December U.S. Home Sales Rebound on Lower Rates, Yet 2025 Remains Weakest Since 1995

Lower mortgage rates helped lift December closings to the strongest pace since early 2023.

Overview

  • Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December to a 4.35 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the highest since February 2023 and up 1.4% from a year earlier, according to NAR.
  • Inventory fell to 1.18 million units from November but was 3.5% higher year over year, leaving a lean 3.3 months of supply at the current sales pace.
  • The median existing-home price in December was $405,400, a 0.4% annual gain, as the average 30-year mortgage rate hovered near 6.19% for the month.
  • New-home contract signings in October held near cycle highs at a 737,000 annualized pace, down 0.1% from September, with the median price at $392,300 (down 8% year over year) and inventory at 488,000 units, or 7.9 months’ supply.
  • Builders reported wider use of incentives and mortgage buydowns that compress margins, and President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in a move analysts expect to have a modest impact on rates.