Overview
- Benchmark contracts on the London Metal Exchange climbed as much as 4.3% to top $13,000 per tonne, while COMEX futures traded above $6 per pound.
- UBS reported that 2025 may have shown a refined copper surplus, yet prospective U.S. tariffs redirected metal to the U.S., which now holds about half of global inventories despite accounting for less than 10% of demand.
- COMEX-registered stocks reached roughly 453,450 tonnes as of January 2, more than 400% above April levels, with Macquarie estimating a further 360,000 tonnes held off exchange in the U.S.
- China Securities forecasts a global refined copper deficit exceeding 100,000 tonnes in 2026, while Citi projects an approximate 308,000‑tonne shortfall this year.
- Recent supply disruptions at Mantoverde in Chile and Grasberg in Indonesia, alongside Venezuela–U.S. tensions that lifted metals, are reinforcing tightness as elevated prices improve the economics of large Argentine projects under the RIGI regime.