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Cooling Inflation Points to Smaller 2027 Social Security COLA

Preliminary forecasts have eased, with the official calculation set from third‑quarter CPI‑W.

Overview

  • January data showed overall consumer prices up 2.4% year over year and the CPI-W up 2.2%, signaling slower inflation.
  • The Senior Citizens League now projects a 2.5% COLA for 2027, below the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received for 2026.
  • Retired analyst Mary Johnson estimates the 2027 COLA could be about 1.2% based on January readings, which would be the smallest since 2016.
  • The Social Security Administration will set the 2027 COLA from the average July–September CPI-W and announce the figure in October 2026.
  • Rising 2026 Medicare costs, including a $202.90 standard Part B premium and higher deductibles, plus elevated utility and grocery expenses, are increasing pressure on retirees.