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CoinShares Says Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Is Distant, With Only 10,200 BTC Realistically at Risk

The firm frames the issue as a long-term engineering problem that favors gradual, voluntary upgrades.

Overview

  • New analysis narrows potential exposure to roughly 1.6–1.7 million BTC (about 8% of supply) in legacy P2PK addresses with visible public keys.
  • Only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated enough to cause appreciable market disruption if suddenly compromised, with the rest scattered across more than 32,000 small outputs.
  • CoinShares estimates that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures within practical timeframes would require fault-tolerant quantum computers with millions of qubits, far beyond today’s ~105‑qubit machines.
  • Attacking live transactions would demand near‑instant key extraction that remains infeasible for decades, while modern address types keep public keys hidden until coins are spent.
  • Developers and institutions are advancing post‑quantum options through testnets and advisory efforts as CoinShares cautions against rushed protocol changes that could introduce bugs or weaken decentralization.