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Climate Analysis Links Coffee Supply Strains and Price Jumps to Rising Heat in Key Growing Regions

Most producers lack financing for proven adaptations, leaving supply and quality at risk.

Overview

  • Climate Central found that from 2021 to 2025, 25 coffee-producing countries averaged 47 additional days each year above the 30°C threshold attributable to climate change, with Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia averaging 57 extra days.
  • The top five producers now face more than 144 days per year of coffee-harming heat on average, based on the group’s attribution analysis.
  • Temperatures above 30°C are extremely harmful for arabica and suboptimal for robusta, which can cut yields, degrade bean quality and heighten disease and pest pressures.
  • International Coffee Organisation data show arabica and robusta prices nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025, with extreme weather linked to recent spikes and trade measures also cited as contributors.
  • Smallholders produce most of the world’s coffee yet received only 0.36% of needed adaptation finance in 2021, and while practices like shade and agroforestry can boost resilience, limited access to rural credit and projected losses of suitable land by 2050 raise long-term risks.