Overview
- With the White House’s informal March 1 cutoff approaching, negotiators on H.R. 3633—which would set SEC/CFTC lines for digital assets—have yet to reach a deal.
- The core dispute centers on whether idle stablecoin balances may earn interest-like returns, with a narrow alternative under discussion allowing activity-linked rewards tied to usage.
- Banking trade groups continue to resist yield, citing projections that competitive stablecoin returns could pull as much as $500 billion from bank deposits by 2028.
- Reporting on the latest draft describes strict anti-loophole provisions to stop “rewards” that mimic interest, backed by SEC, Treasury and CFTC enforcement and fines up to $500,000 per day.
- Market odds have deteriorated even as officials and executives strike upbeat tones, with Polymarket slipping to roughly 42–50% while Patrick Witt, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong and Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse voice optimism.