Overview
- New CREA/Carbon Brief estimates indicate China’s CO2 output likely fell about 0.3% in 2025, with fourth-quarter emissions down 1% year on year.
- The flat-to-falling trend has persisted since March 2024 and marks a rare stretch not tied to an economic slowdown.
- Solar generation rose 43%, wind 14% and nuclear 8% in 2025, supplying roughly 530 TWh of new electricity and enabling a 1.9% drop in coal power and a 1.5% fall in power-sector emissions.
- China added 75 GW of energy storage versus a 55 GW rise in peak demand, a first that could limit reliance on new coal and gas plants despite ongoing grid congestion.
- A 12% surge in chemicals-sector emissions offset broader declines, and analysts warn the small net drop is uncertain, with upcoming five-year plan decisions and a targeted coal-consumption peak around 2027 likely to determine the path ahead.