Overview
- Delegates convene in Beijing this week, with Premier Li Qiang expected to announce a 2026 GDP goal in a 4.5%–5% range and present the government work report.
- The 15th Five-Year Plan is set to double down on technological self-sufficiency, targeting breakthroughs in semiconductors and AI and sustaining a sizable manufacturing base.
- Analysts will parse signals on fiscal stance and jobs, including a likely fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, an urban unemployment target below 5.5%, and guidance on research spending growth.
- Policy documents and expert commentary point to only calibrated steps to boost consumption as leaders contend with a prolonged property slump, soft demand, youth joblessness and demographic decline.
- Military discipline remains in focus after nine officers were dropped from the NPC delegate list and an investigation into Gen. Zhang Youxia, with the annual defence budget also due for release.