Overview
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have constrained tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up insurance costs and lifting Brent and WTI by roughly 7–8%.
- China publicly condemned the strikes and urged an immediate halt to military operations, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning warning of spillover and denying a reported missile-sale deal as untrue.
- Chinese refiners have quietly reduced spot purchases of Iranian crude and increased intake of discounted Russian barrels to stabilize overall supply.
- Any loss or disruption of roughly 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil to China—about 13–14% of its seaborne imports at $10–$20 per barrel discounts—would strain independent teapot refineries and raise domestic costs.
- Sanctions and opaque shipping deepen vulnerability, as U.S. measures have targeted China-linked terminals and UANI estimates $45.7 billion of Iranian oil reached China via a shadow fleet last year, underscored by the mistakenly struck Skylight tanker incident.