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5mo ago

CBO Sees U.S. Population 4.5 Million Lower by 2035 Under Tougher Immigration Enforcement

CBO attributes the downgrade to July’s enforcement funding that lowers net immigration.

COLORADO SPRINGS, CO - JULY 29: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump kisses three-month-old Kellen Campbell, of Denver, right, and holds six-month-old Evelyn Keane, of Castel Rock, Colo., after Trump's speech at the Gallogly Event Center on the campus of the University of Colorado on July 29, 2016 in Colorado Springs, Colorado. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" increased funding for immigration enforcement.
Data: Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals
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Overview

  • Wednesday’s update revises population growth down from January, with projections now reaching about 367 million in 2055 and expanding more slowly than previously expected.
  • The office estimates roughly 320,000 people will leave the country over the next decade because of enforcement, including about 290,000 removals and 30,000 voluntary departures.
  • July’s tax and spending law supplies roughly $150 billion for the crackdown, including more than $70 billion for CBP operations, $47 billion for barriers, $5 billion for new facilities, and $4 billion for hiring.
  • The demographic profile now includes fewer adults ages 25 to 54, and deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031, two years earlier than the prior forecast.
  • CBO emphasizes the projections are highly uncertain due to judicial rulings, detention capacity, and future policy shifts, and a three-year economic forecast based on these demographics is expected Friday.