Overview
- The deficit is projected at about $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2026 (5.8% of GDP), rising to roughly $3.1 trillion by 2036.
- Compared with last year’s baseline, cumulative deficits for 2026–2035 are $1.4 trillion higher under the new forecast.
- CBO estimates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds about $4.7 trillion to 10-year deficits, while higher tariffs reduce deficits by roughly $3 trillion but boost inflation through 2029.
- Reduced immigration policies add about $500 billion to deficits over a decade, with the U.S. population projected to be 5.3 million smaller by 2035.
- Net interest outlays are set to more than double to about $2.1 trillion by 2036, totaling an estimated $16 trillion over 10 years, and Social Security’s OASI trust fund exhaustion is now expected in 2032.