Overview
- The Congressional Budget Office now projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be depleted in 2032, a year earlier than the 2025 Trustees forecast.
- If the fund is exhausted, benefits would be limited to payroll tax income, with analysts estimating average reductions of roughly 20% to 28%.
- Roughly 70 million Americans who receive Social Security retirement and survivor benefits could be affected if cuts occur.
- A 2025 reconciliation law that lowered income taxes on seniors is estimated to reduce trust fund resources by about $168.6 billion over 10 years, according to the Social Security Chief Actuary.
- Repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset added about $200 billion to the 10-year shortfall, CRFB reports, as experts press Congress to evaluate options such as lifting the payroll-tax cap or raising the normal retirement age.