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Cato Study Says Immigrants Delivered $14.5 Trillion Fiscal Gain Since 1994

Cato based its estimate on NASEM-style lifecycle modeling, acknowledging it could not fully separate legal status.

Overview

  • The analysis attributes $10.6 trillion to taxes paid over benefits received plus $3.9 trillion in avoided interest costs, totaling about $14.5 trillion from 1994 to 2023.
  • The paper estimates undocumented immigrants lowered the national deficit by $1.7 trillion over the period, though the dataset does not fully disaggregate legal status.
  • In 2023, immigrants represented 14.7% of the population yet paid 17.3% of taxes and earned 17.4% of income, according to the report.
  • Cato reports immigrants generated $4.8 trillion of U.S. GDP in 2023 and warns that removals would shrink the labor force and economic output.
  • The findings face pushback from restrictionist researchers and arrive as budget analyses project that intensified enforcement and certain tax policies could raise deficits and reduce the workforce.