Overview
- In a March 3 open letter, party chair Rusty Hicks asked Democrats without a viable path not to file by the March 6 deadline or, if they do file, to be ready to suspend and endorse another candidate by April 15.
- Hicks warned that a Democratic shutout on the November ballot could depress turnout and endanger efforts to reclaim House seats under the new congressional map.
- Recent polling places Democrats Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer in a tight pack alongside Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco in the top tier.
- Despite Democrats’ large registration advantage, nine Democratic contenders are splitting their vote while two Republicans dominate their side; an election-data model estimated the lockout risk at roughly 15%.
- The party failed to coalesce around an endorsement at last week’s convention, Gov. Gavin Newsom has not endorsed, and some Democrats, including Xavier Becerra, object that exit pressure is falling on candidates of color.