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Broadcom Projects Strong Q1 AI Sales as VMware Shift Deepens Customer Lock-In

The company guides to roughly $8.2 billion in Q1 AI revenue on a reported custom-silicon backlog above $73 billion.

Overview

  • Management expects about $8.2 billion in Q1 FY26 AI revenue, nearly doubling from a year earlier.
  • Broadcom reports more than $73 billion in custom AI semiconductor backlog tied to hyperscaler programs.
  • The VMware move from perpetual licenses to subscriptions drove about $27 billion in 2025 software revenue with roughly 77% operating margins.
  • Legacy semiconductor businesses remain steady, with non‑AI chip revenue guided to around $4.1 billion for Q1 and limited growth.
  • Analysts point to concentration risks from hyperscaler capex and potential VMware customer or geopolitical pressures, even as renewal rates and integration appear strong.