Brazil’s Meat Exports Set 2025 Records as China and Mexico Tighten Import Access

Overview

• China introduced 2026–2028 country-specific beef quotas, assigning Brazil 1.106 million tonnes in 2026 with gradual increases to 1.151 million tonnes by 2028, which is below Brazil’s 2025 shipments to China.
• Mexico replaced broad tariff-free access with duty-free quotas of 70,000 tonnes for beef and 51,000 tonnes for pork through December 2026, with excess volumes taxed at 20% and 16% respectively.
• Brazil closed 2025 with record exports of 3.50 million tonnes of beef worth US$18.03 billion and 1.510 million tonnes of pork worth US$3.619 billion, with China taking 48% of beef volumes.
• Analysts say curtailed sales to China and Mexico could be redirected to other buyers such as the United States and the Philippines, though absorption capacity and timing remain uncertain.
• Economists expect Brazilian meat prices to stay elevated in 2026 due to a cyclical drop in cattle slaughter and strong domestic demand linked to major events.