Overview
- John Bolton called the U.S. strikes the most consequential decision of President Trump's tenure but questioned the administration's post-strike planning.
- He warned there is no consistent long-term strategic framework on Iran and said the president may not have thought past the trigger.
- Bolton said he is very worried the administration did not adequately consult the Iranian opposition before the operation.
- He flagged an underappreciated mine threat in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting Iran cannot mine the waterway if its navy is neutralized by U.S. action.
- Market reaction was swift as WTI crude jumped about 7.3% to $71.89, with expectations of a short-lived disruption as tankers await underwriter approval and with Bolton arguing U.S. shale could cap any spike and that lifting Iranian sanctions could add medium-term supply.