BNP Starts Tesla at Underperform as Barclays Raises Target Before Q3 Earnings

Overview

• BNP Paribas Exane initiated Tesla with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, implying roughly 30% downside from recent levels.
• BNP’s base valuation of about $1.02 trillion attributes roughly 75% to Robotaxi and Optimus, which it notes have zero sales today, with a discounted bull-case of $2.7 trillion through 2040.
• The BNP model projects about 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus units by 2040, and over 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
• Barclays lifted its target to $350 and kept an Equal Weight stance, flagging an accelerating AI narrative, an expected Q3 EPS beat, and a neutral-to-slightly-negative view on near-term volumes and margins.
• The diverging views arrive after a sharp share run-up over the past year and ahead of Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, which investors view as the next key test.