Overview
- Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are earning sizable returns by wagering that Elon Musk will miss high-profile targets such as a California robotaxi launch or forming a third U.S. political party.
- Polymarket standout David Bensoussan has made more than $36,000 on resolved Musk-related bets and about $1.4 million in total profits, while other users have posted large short-term gains tied to Musk-focused markets.
- Recent market snapshots show cautious odds on Musk initiatives, with Kalshi pricing a 14.5% chance of a Tesla Optimus launch this year and Polymarket showing a 68% chance of unsupervised Full Self-Driving by June 30.
- Market pricing has shifted in response to Musk’s statements, including a move to 100% odds on Kalshi after he said human safety monitors would be removed from robotaxi operations in Texas.
- Musk frequently comments on prediction markets, and his AI firm xAI integrates with Kalshi and Polymarket, while economists say the markets serve as a disciplining mechanism on ambitious public claims.