Overview
- Minutes from the December meeting show the board will evaluate the timing of any additional adjustments to the 7% policy rate based on incoming data.
- Subgovernor Jonathan Heath cautioned that if convergence weakens, the central bank should consider raising the benchmark rate again.
- INEGI reported headline inflation at 3.69% for 2025 within Banxico’s target range, while core inflation remained elevated at 4.33%.
- Analysts, including Banamex and Citi survey respondents, now expect a cautious pause through roughly May 2026, with the next policy decision set for February 5.
- The board noted weak late‑2025 activity and signs of labor market cooling, and it expects IEPS changes and higher tariffs to have mostly one‑off, transitory price effects.