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AppLovin Slides After Big Q4 Beat as Wall Street Resets Targets

Price-target cuts alongside retained positive ratings reflect a reassessment of AI competition risk.

Overview

  • AppLovin reported Q4 revenue of $1.66 billion, up 66% year over year, with diluted EPS of $3.24 and net income of $1.10 billion, topping expectations.
  • The company guided Q1 revenue to $1.745–$1.775 billion, implying 50%–53% growth, and projected adjusted EBITDA of $1.465–$1.495 billion.
  • Shares have fallen more than 40% this year even as gross margin rose to 88.9% and operating costs declined, with $1.3 billion in Q4 free cash flow and net debt reduced to about $1 billion.
  • UBS cut its target to $686, Jefferies to $700, and Morgan Stanley to $720 while keeping Buy/Overweight ratings; Wedbush lifted its target to $640 and kept an Outperform rating.
  • Analysts cited Axon 2.0, stronger e-commerce spend, and higher advertiser adoption as key drivers, while flagging competitive threats such as Google’s Project Genie and potential margin pressure.