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AppLovin Sells Off After Earnings Beat as Analysts Eye Dip Trades

Sturdy fundamentals meet renewed skepticism over growth prospects, with AI competition in focus.

Overview

  • Shares dropped roughly 20% following the Feb. 11 report and recently traded near $366.91, extending a sharp pullback in early 2026.
  • Q4 2025 revenue rose 66% to $1.66 billion and EPS reached $3.24, topping estimates, with adjusted EBITDA margin near 84% and buybacks totaling $481.7 million in Q4 and $2.58 billion for 2025.
  • Management guided Q1 2026 revenue to $1.745–$1.775 billion and projected adjusted EBITDA of $1.465–$1.495 billion at about an 84% margin.
  • Analysts largely kept positive views but trimmed targets, including Jefferies cutting its target to $700 and Benchmark reaffirming Buy with a $775 target.
  • Market commentary shifted to tactical ideas to play the decline, with Forbes outlining a long‑dated put‑selling strategy, as debate persists over competition from Meta, Google’s Project Genie, and CloudX.