Overview
- Willy Woo argues Bitcoin’s decade-long outperformance versus gold has stalled as investors factor in quantum-computing risk.
- An estimated 4 million lost BTC could be recoverable in a quantum breakthrough, outweighing the roughly 2.8–3 million accumulated by corporations and spot ETFs since 2020.
- Woo pegs a potential 'Q-Day' window at 5–15 years and says the valuation discount may persist until that risk is credibly resolved.
- Bitcoin’s signatures rely on ECDSA, which would be vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm on a sufficiently advanced quantum computer, though experts expect post‑quantum upgrades before any practical attack.
- Pushback from industry figures, including Adam Back and Andreas Antonopoulos, casts the threat as distant and manageable, while some analysts note investor preference for gold in current allocations.