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Analysis: Midterm Manipulation Most Likely Through Gerrymandering, Not Overt Illegality

A Bulwark essay argues Democrats should focus on lawful mechanisms that could tilt outcomes.

Overview

  • Nicholas Grossman argues Trump-aligned efforts are more likely to exploit existing mechanisms, especially partisan gerrymandering, than to rely on illegal tactics.
  • He describes the second Trump administration as less constrained than the first yet still inclined to work through institutional channels.
  • Grossman urges vigilance without panic, recommending attention to realistic threats rather than worst-case scenarios.
  • Opponents fear tactics such as ICE intimidation at polling places or legal challenges aimed at discarding valid Democratic votes, the report notes.
  • He contends that large voting margins can override manipulation, pointing to recent double-digit Democratic wins and weak presidential approval as grounds for optimism.