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AMD’s AI Systems Push Draws New Skepticism as Analyst Starts Coverage at Neutral

Investor caution centers on the depth of AMD’s software ecosystem.

Overview

  • D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria initiated coverage at Neutral with a $220 target, citing interconnect performance, ROCm’s gap with CUDA, and challenges scaling to tens of thousands of GPUs.
  • Luria warned of a “negative flywheel” in which lower Instinct volumes reduce TSMC priority, creating supply uncertainty and limiting large‑scale software feedback.
  • AMD reported Q4 2025 data center revenue of $5.4 billion, up 39% year over year, with record Epyc CPU sales alongside Instinct MI350 deployments.
  • The company is pivoting to Helios rack‑scale systems, with MI450 revenue slated to begin in Q3 2026 and ramp in Q4, supported by OpenAI’s plan to deploy up to 6 gigawatts starting in H2 2026.
  • The broader analyst community maintains a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $286.80, implying about 38% upside from recent levels.